In November 2020, a 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended with an armistice and confirmed Baku’s capture of territory in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but had enjoyed de facto autonomy since an earlier cease-fire in 1994. The local population has consequently lived in isolation for the past two and a half years, hemmed in on all sides by a deeply hostile and authoritarian Azerbaijani state, Freedom House reports.
Even as the president of Azerbaijan and the freely elected prime minister of Armenia engage in negotiations on the terms of a broader settlement, Azerbaijani forces have tightened the cordon around Nagorno-Karabakh over the last several months, pushing residents toward a humanitarian breaking point and increasing the need for urgent assistance from the world’s democracies.
The Lachin corridor is essential for the survival of the ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Its obstruction for the last several months has led to a lack of access to vital goods and services. At the same time, the flow of natural gas to Nagorno-Karabakh from a pipeline that passes through Azerbaijani-controlled territory has been completely cut off. Baku has similarly severed the region’s connection to Armenia’s electrical grid, leading to daily power cuts. These energy problems have disrupted hospital operations, as have shortages of medicine, medical supplies, and hygiene products.
Children, the elderly, and people with disabilities have been particularly affected by these deprivations. Around 30,000 children have been unable to attend kindergartens and other educational institutions. Frequent electricity and gas shutdowns during the freezing temperatures of winter resulted in the closure of dozens of schools and colleges.
As a result, the Armenian government and public have roundly criticized the Russian peacekeeping contingent. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan—who came to power as the leader of a nonviolent protest movement in the Velvet Revolution of 2018 and later won two democratic elections—has repeatedly accused the peacekeepers of failing to fulfill their obligations and ignoring Baku’s efforts to make conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh unbearable. He has suggested initiating a session at the UN Security Council to authorize an international peacekeeping mission for the region.
The Velvet Revolution in Armenia was seen as a victory for democracy, blocking the incumbent leader’s attempt to extend his decade-long rule. However, it also raised concerns in the Kremlin that Armenia, traditionally a Russian ally, could undergo a geopolitical shift toward the West. Moscow’s inability or refusal to protect the interests of Armenians—both in Armenia and in Nagorno-Karabakh—has only deepened the Russian rift with Yerevan, creating a key moment of opportunity for leading democracies to step in, respond to the threats emanating from the Azerbaijani regime, and set the conditions for further democratic progress in the South Caucasus.
The regime of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is notorious for disregarding international accountability mechanisms. Shortly after the cease-fire statement was signed in November 2020, Azerbaijani forces seized two additional villages, and later captured the village of Parukh (Farukh) in Nagorno-Karabakh. Last September, the Azerbaijani military launched an attack on positions inside Armenia itself—well beyond Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders.
Nonbinding policy recommendations, such as the opinions of the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, have carried little weight with the Aliyev government. Even binding decisions from international tribunals are ineffective: Azerbaijan routinely fails to execute judgments of the European Court of Human Rights, and nearly 40 percent of these unimplemented cases relate to the conflict. In this context, it is clear that human rights abuses in Nagorno-Karabakh can only be addressed through much more active engagement and enforcement efforts by democratic powers.
In the short term, democracies should leverage international institutions, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe or the UN Security Council, to help enforce orders like that of the International Court of Justice, ensuring that the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh is lifted in practice. Meaningful enforcement actions could also deter Baku from using military escalations along the border with Armenia to win territorial concessions in its talks with Yerevan, which are being facilitated by Washington and Brussels. Meanwhile, democracies should provide direct humanitarian assistance to the populations affected by the conflict to alleviate their suffering.
Beyond such action by governments, civil society has a crucial role to play in raising awareness about the human rights situation resulting from the conflict. Local civic groups should monitor and document any human rights violations, and contribute to peacebuilding and reconciliation by fostering dialogue between ethnic and national communities. They can also establish international networks and alliances to amplify their voices and advocate for democratic values across the region.
