Türkiye will likely continue to scale back its reliance on Russian natural gas in favor of more cost-competitive options if Russia remains an expensive option, a shift driven strictly by market conditions rather than geopolitical decisions, according to Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
Speaking at a press roundtable in Istanbul, Bayraktar said, "The reason we are buying less gas from Russia and more gas from the U.S. has a very simple answer: not politics, but price. Russia is extremely expensive."
The minister explained that prohibitive costs are accelerating Türkiye’s pivot toward a more diversified supply network.
"On the energy demand side, because gas is extremely expensive, you are basically forcing people to find alternatives—either alternative gas channels, cheaper gas, competitive gas, or alternative fuel," he noted.
He noted that under Türkiye's new National Energy 2040 plan, the country's gas demand is projected to remain at 57 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year—close to current levels. He added that without the plan, demand could reach 77 bcm annually by 2040.
However, he acknowledged a decoupling from Moscow is not on the horizon.
Bayraktar highlighted that Türkiye will continue to need Russian gas. He emphasized that as long as current market disparities exist, "you might see this trend continue every year," with cheaper gas systematically replacing more expensive imports.
