Russia’s catastrophic invasion of Ukraine means Armenia can no longer rely on Moscow as a guarantor of its security, even as fears grow of a return to open conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told
POLITICO in an interview.
Pashinyan’s unusually pointed criticism of Russia’s inability to act as a policeman in the Caucasus only compounds a sense the Kremlin is losing its influence — and once much-vaunted superpower status — across former Soviet republics that Moscow once saw as its stamping ground.
Disillusion in Yerevan could represent a major turning point for the country of 2.8 million people as it has delegated much of the control of its railways, its energy sector and even its borders to Russia after the collapse of the USSR. When Armenia fought a 44-day war against the stronger, Turkish-backed forces of Azerbaijan in 2020 — a conflict that killed thousands on each side — it was Russian peacekeepers that were deployed to maintain a ceasefire.
Now Russia is fully committed to fighting in Ukraine, fears are growing in Yerevan over whether President Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are willing or able to keep the peace in the Caucasus. That’s a pressing concern because there is every danger that Armenia could resume fighting with Azerbaijan over the breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“As a result of the events in Ukraine, the capabilities of Russia have changed,” Pashinyan said, acknowledging that Moscow was seeking to avoid alienating Azerbaijan and its close ally Turkey, both of which have risen in strategic importance for the Kremlin since the start of the Ukraine war last year.
“Our strategy should be to try in this situation to maximally decrease our dependency on others,” he added. “We want to have an independent country, a sovereign country, but we have to have ways to avoid ending up in the center of clashes between West and East, North and South … There cannot be a case when Armenia becomes a ‘proxy.’ This is not permissible.”
Calling on the big protector — Russia in Armenia’s case — each time conflict flared was simply unsustainable, he argued.
“The model by which we have problems with our neighbors and we have to invite others to protect us — it doesn’t matter who these others are — is a very vulnerable model.”
Inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but controlled by its ethnic Armenian population, Nagorno-Karabakh has been the scene of two wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Russia stepping in on both occasions to guarantee its security.
Now, it seems Moscow’s ability to guarantee the status quo is evaporating.
“The security situation has changed acutely with violations along the line of contact and invasion into the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan said, accusing Azerbaijan of creating a “humanitarian crisis” by closing the Lachin Corridor — the only highway linking the region to Armenia, which Moscow’s troops were tasked with guarding under the terms of the 2020 ceasefire.
Aid organizations say deliveries of food and fuel have been blocked for months, with warnings of impending famine in the region. The Azerbaijani government has called on the Karabakh Armenians to lay down their weapons, receive supplies from inside Azerbaijan, and accept being governed as part of the country.
This offered a clear sign that Russia was no longer pulling its weight, Pashinyan complained.
“All of this … was supposed to be in the sphere of responsibility of Russian peacekeepers and as far as these issues exist, the Russian peacekeepers have failed in their mission,” he said.
Still, he added a caveat: “I can’t say though that if the Russian peacekeepers hadn’t been in Nagorno-Karabakh, the situation would now be better.”
The frustration with the failure of Russian forces to help forms part of a pattern of worsening ties between Moscow and Yerevan.
