Stratfor published an analysis reassessing the risks of escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh. “As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan stall, violent flare-ups either in Nagorno-Karabakh or on their common border are increasingly likely, even if a large-scale Azerbaijani military operation or direct Iranian involvement in the conflict remains unlikely”, said the article.
The authors say, recent events show that the negotiation process is at risk of losing momentum, opening the possibility of renewed efforts by Azerbaijan to demonstrate its leverage, including with force, which will likely eventually kickstart diplomatic progress. The article goes on with suggestion that despite its recent aggressive actions, Azerbaijan remains unlikely to launch a large-scale military operation to seize large swaths of new territory in Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenia, as less costly methods can enable Baku to maintain progress toward its goals.
The article concludes that Iran, meanwhile, will continue actions aimed at deterring Azerbaijan, maintaining already high tensions between the two countries.
