Time Magazine issued an article on latest developments in South Caucasus. Some extract from the article. Read the full version
here.
Few would be surprised to hear that the United States is involved in supporting a democratic nation that was recently invaded by its authoritarian neighbor. But many Americans are likely unaware that their country is doing so for two such post-Soviet nations: not just Ukraine, but also Armenia, which has been suffering from Azerbaijan’s invasion for almost three weeks now. The threat is—not just for Armenia, but for the world.
In the early minutes of Sept. 13, as families across eastern Armenia slept, Azerbaijan launched the unprovoked shelling of three dozen Armenian towns with heavy artillery and unmanned combat drones. The two countries have been locked in off-and-on hostilities for decades over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh republic, but Azerbaijan’s regime now seems to take advantage of its rival’s military unpreparedness and global, especially Russian, distraction. Azerbaijan attempted to deny having attacked within Armenia’s borders, but the onslaught was so intense that NASA’s fire-management satellites detected massive thermal anomalies. In just two days, Azerbaijan’s forces killed over 200 Armenians, primarily soldiers, according to official government counts. Videos spread by the invaders appeared to show them giggling while mutilating fallen Armenian women, and executing Armenian soldiers who had surrendered.
Still, many media outlets across the world lack on-the-ground regional journalists, so the news from Armenia largely stayed off the mainstream radar.
It was not until U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia the weekend of Sept. 17, in support of Armenian “security and democracy” against Azerbaijan’s “illegal and deadly attacks,” that it became fully clear that the U.S., in a dramatic transformation, is fully engaged, albeit probably only diplomatically, in preventing existential threats against Armenia.
The U.S.’s recent involvement in the Caucasus is unprecedented. For the very first time since the Cold War, it’s the actions of a country other than Russia that matter most right now in the region. Will Washington succeed in preventing a full-scale invasion of democratic Armenia? Is it willing to make sacrifices to meet that goal, such as selling defense weaponry to Armenia and sanctioning Azerbaijan, despite intense Turkish pressure and European energy needs?
With the possibility of further violence hanging over their talks, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva on Oct. 2, as Azerbaijani special forces reportedly neared Armenia’s borders. Hostilities may resume any moment, given that Azerbaijan’s autocrat seems to have few reasons for restraint. At the Oct. 1 unveiling of a new gas pipeline to Europe, E.U. leader Ursula von der Leyen praised Azerbaijan as “reliable”; Europe, facing the energy impacts of its determination to punish Russia, appears willing to embolden another authoritarian aggressor. The U.S., at least in rhetoric, seems to be slightly more cautious.
Whether the history—of unrealized western promises pushing a vulnerable Armenia closer to Russia—will repeat itself, this time as a cruel joke, largely depends on where American leadership goes next.
