International Crisis Group issued an analysis on the September 13-14 aggression by Azerbaijan against Armenia.
“First, Azerbaijan may be taking advantage of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has distracted not just Moscow but also Paris and Washington, the other co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, which until recently was the main sponsor of peace talks. This theory – shared by many in Yerevan – holds that with the co-chairs all looking the other way, Baku has seized the moment to improve the strategic map in its favour and position itself better for a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict”, said the report.
Secondly, Azerbaijan may be in a hurry, said the report. President Aliyev wants a peace accord in the next two to three months. One reason could be that he is looking ahead to the June 2023 Turkish elections and is worried that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan - a staunch backer of Baku - may be weakened, thus sapping Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan in the negotiations.
Thirdly, some in Yerevan link the escalation to Azerbaijan’s desire to secure a special land road, policed by Russian border guards, through Armenia to Nakhijevan. The Russian-brokered ceasefire that ended fighting in 2020 called for opening all transport routes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the roads that connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.
Finally, Azerbaijan wants to pressure Armenia to get back control of eight villages that are controlled by Armenia. For its part, Armenia also has an exclave in Azerbaijan, known as Artvashen and controlled by Baku. Prospects for peace are looking increasingly dim. The level of force Baku deployed in the recent fighting has deeply undercut Yerevan’s trust in the negotiations, said the report by the International Crisis Group.
